Change is coming...

I awoke this morning to a blood-orange sky. This was the result of a strong sandstorm that blew in yesterday blotting out the sun, and producing a series of fantastic colors ranging from white-hot, to brown, to an ominous yellow.

These sandstorms are an interesting phenomenon. They take a beautiful day and turn it brown. Even the Americans wear face masks, transforming us into locals, but instead of the familiar red or black checkered face masks of the Arabic world, ours are of course desert camouflage. We still end up with our lungs filled with dirt and spend the day attempting to keep the dirt from filling our eyes. The advantage of the storm is it has dropped the temperature from 128 degrees last week to a very comfortable 108 today. The storm and resulting change of temperature is but a minor adjustment compared to what is in store for us.

I cannot say what the coming days will bring. The winds of change are in place in Iraq: we are getting a new commander, it is the month of Ramadan, attacks are at an all time low, we are drawing down our troop strength, and to top it all off we are getting a new commander in chief elected in just a few months.

What is the future of Iraq? We see agreements and disagreements every day. Violent incidents are at an all time low. There were an average of 1600 violent incidents per week one year ago, we are now averaging under 200. In contrast to this indicator of security improvement, we had yet another female suicide bomber yesterday to destroy the peace. We continue to hand over vast segments of the country to the local governments, putting the Iraqis in charge of their own security. This has been very successful. But it seems that just prior to the handover there is an uprising from the insurgency in an attempt to destabilize the area again. It is almost as though the extremists don’t want Iraqi control. It is almost as though they want a continued Coalition presence so they will have something to fight against. Could it be they need an excuse for their radicalism?

As I have noted before, stability breeds stability. Once areas become safe everyone wants to move there. We heard reports today from young professionals complaining that land prices are too high in the safe areas. Strangely, this is a positive indicator. The market has always been dictated by desirability. So if prices are rising in segments of Iraq, this means there are areas that are very desirable. People are returning to neighborhoods they abandoned years ago only to find squatters living in their homes. It has been pretty simple to solve though. Usually no litigation is even necessary. People want their old neighbors back regardless of their religious beliefs. What was a stable neighborhood before the war can safely become stable again when the same people live there. So the locals are literally driving the squatters and insurgents from their streets.

Of course the question is, can it last? Will be stay here long enough to ensure the improvements can gain a solid footing. I can assure you everyone wants to go home, but we want to make sure the work we have given so much of our lives to will last. The soldiers who have served in Iraq want the pride of a WWII veteran, not the pride mixed sorrow of those who struggled in Vietnam.

We are almost there in Iraq, but changes are happening.